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Retail import growth projected to slow over summer

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Washington, D.C. -- Import volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to increase 3.3% in May over the same month last year, but growth could trickle to a standstill by the end of the summer, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released Tuesday by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“The weak cargo increases expected over the next few months are consistent with other signs that the economy is slowly improving but show that retailers remain cautious, especially when it comes to stocking their inventories,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF VP supply chain and customs policy. “We’re looking at barely 1% of year-over-year growth through the early summer, and August and September are expected to be basically flat even though they’re supposed to be two of the busiest months of the years.”

Cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them. But the amount of merchandise imported nonetheless provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.14 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units in March, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 10.9% from February and 8.6% from March 2012. One TEU is one 20-ft. cargo container or its equivalent.

April was estimated at 1.29 million TEU, down 1.4% from a year ago. May is forecast at 1.42 million TEU, up 3.3% from last year; June at 1.4 million TEU, up 1.4%; July at 1.43 million TEU, also up 1.4%; August at 1.43 million TEU, up 0.1%, and September at 1.41 million TEU, unchanged from last year.

The first six months of 2013 are expected to total 7.8 million TEU, up 2% from the first half of 2012. The total for 2012 was 15.8 million TEU, up 2.9% from 2011.

 

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