WTI expects July 2014 to trend similar to last year for the U.S. as a whole. The East will trend near normal or cooler than normal, while warmer than normal temperatures will be confined to the West. Overall, the peak of the summer is shaping up to be very similar to 2013 but with a few major timing differences. Unlike 2013, the hotter weather in 2014 will be back-end loaded in the month just as back-to-school shopping begins, which is a negative for early fall apparel, but favorable for clearing out summer inventory. A cooler Fourth of July week in the Northeast and West will drag on sun care and beverage sales, but a spell of warmer weather later in the month will help to recover some earlier holiday loses. Tropical activity will continue to be subdued, especially during the first half of the month, but there may be a slight pick up later in July with the highest risk areas being south Florida and Texas.
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