New York City -- A new report from Pike Research forecasts that LEDs will capture 52% of the commercial lighting market by 2021. Pike, a cleantech market intelligence firm, anticipates that LED lighting costs for various SSL products will be reduced by 80% to 90% in many cases during the next decade.
The report, “Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets,” finds that while the market share of solid-state lighting is still low, LEDs are gaining significant momentum as an alternative to incandescent and fluorescent lighting in commercial buildings, particularly as the cost of the technology continues its rapid decline.
“LEDs represent perhaps the most significant breakthrough of the last 130 years in lighting technology,” said research analyst Eric Bloom. “The production of white LEDs, which began in the late 1990s, is starting to transform the lighting industry, and the transition to this new technology is likely to occur very quickly."
According to Bloom, incandescent and less efficient T12 and T8 fluorescent lamps will be almost completely eliminated during the next 10 years. To take more than 50% of the market, LEDs will take share from compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs), high-intensity discharge (HID) lighting, and general linear fluorescents.
The forecasts that the global market for commercial lighting will reach $42 billion in 2011, and experience a peak of nearly $54 billion in 2012 before gradually declining to about $30 billion by 2021. The decline will be due to the extended lamp life of both fluorescents and LEDs as they become the primary lamp types, increasingly displacing demand for replacements for less efficient and shorter-lived incandescent lamps.
An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.