Chicago -- Using new traffic forecasting metholdology, ShopperTrak now forecasts that 10% fewer shoppers will visit brick-and-mortar stores in the holiday months of November and December as compared to last year. In September, the company has projected a 1.4% decline in traffic.
The company noted that bright spots endure in its updated holiday forecast. The company expects retail traffic to rise 5% in the apparel and accessories category over 2012. And its sales forecast remains unchanged – the company predicts GAFO retail sales will increase 2.4% in the months of November and December compared to last year.
ShopperTrak has expanded its forecasting dataset to include more stores and categories. The company’s updated holiday forecasts are based on traffic information from every U.S. retail outlet the company monitors and now reflect information gathered from more categories of stores, including dollar stores, home furnishings, sporting goods, office supply, gifts stores and mass merchandise. It issued its September when it still used its smaller sample size methodology.
“We refined our models and methodologies to accommodate customer requests to be included in the index,” said ShopperTrak chief product officer Chetan Ghai. By expanding the universe of data included and evolving to a census model, clients will have a broader and more familiar comparison basis while retaining the ability to drill down to our traditional sectors."