FINANCE

Deloitte: Consumer spending index rose in September

BY Katherine Boccaccio

New York — Deloitte’s Consumer Spending Index rose in September, aided by a near 11% gain in home prices. The Index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending.

“The sizable increase in home prices may overstate the strength of the real estate market, though on a positive note, the declines may be over and the market stabilizing,” said Carl Steidtmann, Deloitte’s chief economist and author of the monthly Index. “The increase may also provide a much-needed boost to consumer confidence as other hurdles lie ahead.”

Consumer spending growth has slowed, added Steidtmann, and “the primary reason that it is flat but not declining is that households are putting less into their savings. Energy prices remain a drag on household incomes and rising prices account for the largest month-to-month drop in real wages since September 2005.”

Deloitte’s analysis of factors influencing consumer spending further indicate:

  • Personal income and spending data for August were disappointing. Real incomes dropped 0.3% while spending was up just 0.1% from the previous month. While overall spending is up 2% from a year ago, growth in the past three months has been tepid, falling 0.1% in June, rising 0.37% in July and increasing just .08% in August. The savings rate also fell from 4.1% to 3.7% in the most recent month.
  • Energy prices remain an important factor. Gas prices usually decline in autumn as the summer driving season ends, but in a highly unusual turn, they have continued upward this fall.
  • The labor market remains a drag on the Index and the broader economy. Claims have moved up and down and hiring seems limited. Job gains over the summer were very weak.
  • The Index, which comprises four components — tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices — rose to 3.53 from a reading of 3.27 the previous month.

"The ups and downs in housing, employment and energy costs may have given consumers pause this past month,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail & distribution sector leader. “As the holidays get into full swing, however, we anticipate shopper enthusiasm will be renewed. Turning their attention away from politics after the election, consumers can get back to the business of shopping. Retailers should benefit from a predicted 3.5% to 4% increase in November through January holiday sales over last year, and non-store channels such as online, catalogs and interactive TV, are expected to increase 15% to 17%.”

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OPERATIONS

Survey: 54% of shoppers will spend $500+ on holiday gifts

BY Katherine Boccaccio

Los Angeles — Research results released Monday by PriceGrabber – augmenting its previously released winter holiday shopping survey – revealed that more than half (54%) of consumers plan to spend $500 or more on gifts this season, slightly higher than 2011.

In a demonstration of online channel strength, 75% of respondents selected online retailers when asked to select the types of stores they plan to shop for holiday gifts. Discount stores followed with 74%, and traditional department stores came in third place with 49%.

Local independent retailers received 41% of the vote, 36% indicated electronic stores, 24% selected clothing stores, and 9% indicated they plan to shop at luxury department stores this holiday season.

“The start of the holiday shopping season has been very competitive with retailers vying for shoppers’ attention by offering aggressive promotions,” said Rojeh Avanesian, VP marketing and analytics of PriceGrabber. “We anticipate retailers will continue to offer very strong promotions and incentives in November and December to move products, increase consumer visits and boost sales.”

Clothing and gift cards continue to remain the top holiday gift choices again this year. When asked what items they plan to purchase as holiday gifts this season, 65% of consumers chose clothing, followed by the 49% who said gift cards; 41% who opted for books, CDs, DVDs or video games; and 40% choosing toys. Shoes and hobby-related items both received 29% of the vote. Twenty-eight percent opted for jewelry; 24% said food or candy; 21% selected sporting goods; and 17% indicated cosmetics, spa packages or beauty-related gifts.

The survey also showed that consumers eye post-Thanksgiving as the start of retail deals. When asked when they believe the best deals will be available for holiday shopping, 33% said after the Thanksgiving holiday (compared with 29% in 2011), 28% specifically indicated Black Friday, 23% said the month of December, and 16% said Cyber Monday.

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REAL ESTATE

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Chattanooga, Tenn. — CBL & Associates Properties said Monday it will renovate and redevelop its Northgate Mall property in Chattanooga, Tenn., with the first phase adding Ross Dress for Less and Michael’s Arts & Crafts, as well as redeveloping the adjacent T.J. Maxx-anchored community center.

Construction will begin on the associated center in early 2013 with completion anticipated in fall 2013.

In addition, CBL said it will launch a multi-million dollar renovation of Northgate Mall to include interior and exterior enhancements, main entrance updates and partial repaving of the parking lot. Remodeling inside the mall will include new soft seating areas, new flooring, and ceiling and lighting upgrades. The renovation is slated to begin in summer 2013, with a completion anticipated in fall 2013.

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