ICSC: Holiday sales to rise 3.4%
New York — Holiday sales will rise 3.4% sales increase, slightly stronger than last year, for the traditional November-December holiday period, even though retailers are expecting a more modest spending season, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Additionally, ICSC anticipates that the other two measures of U.S. industry holiday sales will both increase over last year.
“We’re going to see a more subdued spending mood from consumers, but what counts is that we’re on track to have a better holiday sales season that last year,” said Michael P. Niemira, VP of research and chief economist for ICSC. “With leaner inventories, retailers can expect their prices and margins to remain stable, which is another good indicator of stronger sales,” he said.
The ICSC forecasts that holiday hiring will be up 0.5% from last year, which differs significantly from a recent Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. estimate for a 6.9% drop in seasonal hiring.
E-Commerce is On for Off-Price Retailers
Off-price retailers have traditionally stayed offline when it comes to conducting actual retail transactions. While most off-price retailers have long operated informational sites where customers can perform tasks such as locating nearby stores and checking prices, it has been very rare for retailers in this space to allow customers to buy goods via the Internet. Until now.
This month, leading off-price chains Belk and T.J. Maxx both introduced true e-commerce sites. Belk launched its e-commerce site with a great deal of fanfare (including mentioning it in a recent Chain Store Age article), while T.J. Maxx went with an unpublicized “soft launch.” Of course off-price e-commerce sites are not completely unknown. T.J. Maxx actually tried its hand at e-commerce about eight years ago and decided to abandon the effort, while Tuesday Morning shut down its e-commerce site this past summer.
However, when T.J. Maxx and Belk both go live with e-commerce in the same month, it’s a clear sign that an off-price e-commerce trend may be developing. These two off-price mainstays are not both heading into the world of virtual retail by pure coincidence. Let’s look at a few larger developments that could fuel much more widespread e-commerce activity in the off-price vertical.
Simply put, today’s customers expect to be able to purchase the same goods online that they can in physical stores. The fact that certain aspects of the off-price vertical make this trickier to pull off behind the scenes than in other verticals (more on that in a moment) does not resonate with consumers, nor should it. As Stein Mart executives explain in the current August/September issue of Chain Store Age, the key drivers for becoming one of the first off-price retailers to have a fully functional e-commerce site were expanding the customer base and responding to requests from existing customers for 24-hour shopping access.
Improved Supply Chains
Off-price retailers often provide an extremely wide and somewhat unpredictable assortment of goods. As products span numerous categories and frequently become available on short notice due to closeouts, manufacturer errors, etc., it is especially difficult for off-price retailers to accurately make current inventory available for purchase online.
However, in recent years supply chains have become “leaner and meaner” thanks to the implementation of standards such as those provided by VICS and Six Sigma, as well as of technologies that provide near- and real-time visibility into supply chain activities. The price of implementing these standards and solutions has come down as they have matured, making them more accessible to off-price retailers that generally operate on slim margins.
In addition to an evolution occurring in supply chain technology, an evolution is also occurring in e-commerce technology. E-commerce is by and large no longer a siloed activity, but merely one more channel in an “omni-channel” retailing strategy that also includes stores as well as mobile devices and social media platforms. As with supply chain solutions, the cost and complexity of implementing and integrating omni-channel technology is coming down over time, making it more accessible to off-price chains.
It will probably be a while before the majority of large off-price retailers are fully engaged in e-commerce, but the precedent is being set. Customers clearly have affection for brand names at discount prices, so they will probably show a little patience as the vertical catches up.
ICSC brings glad tidings to retailers
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is forecasting a 3.4% sales increase for the traditional November-December holiday period from last year — which spells good news for retailers.
ICSC also anticipates that the other two measures of U.S. industry holiday sales — shopping-center inclined sales +3.4%, and chain-store sales +2.0 — will both increase over last year.
While the industry and the U.S. economy have gone through a mini-cycle slowdown the last three quarters, there are indicators of positive growth this season, despite retailers’ mixed outlook. Although consumers have faced some political and economic uncertainty — higher payroll taxes, concern about a federal government shutdown and questionable costs of the Affordable Care Act — this year’s sales are looking to be better than last year’s.
“We’re going to see a more subdued spending mood from consumers, but what counts is that we’re on track to have a better holiday sales season that last year,” said Michael P. Niemira, VP of research and chief economist for ICSC. “With leaner inventories, retailers can expect their prices and margins to remain stable, which is another good indicator of stronger sales.”
Additionally, holiday hiring is highly correlated with holiday spending, and can also forecast a stronger sales performance. It appears that holiday hiring will be up 0.5% from last year.
Founded in 1957, ICSC is a global trade association of the shopping center industry. Its more than 60,000 members in more than 100 countries include shopping center owners, developers, managers, marketing specialists, investors, retailers and brokers, as well as academics and public officials. As the global industry trade association, ICSC links with more than 25 national and regional shopping center councils throughout the world.