Survey: Hiring plans, sales outlook more optimistic this holiday season
Philadelphia A survey released Thursday by global management consultancy Hay Group found that 64% of retailers expect holiday sales will increase over 2009, a vastly brighter picture than last year when only 28% planned for a sales increase.
The outlook for retail seasonal job applicants is also brighter, with 83% of retailers planning to hire more or about the same number of workers when compared with the 2009 holiday season.
However, the job market remains competitive. Forty-three percent of respondents expect to see more applicants this holiday season than in 2009, although that is a drop from 62% that saw more applicants last year than in 2008. Only 17% of retailers plan to reduce their staffing levels, a notable decrease from 40% in 2009.
“Retailers are more optimistic than last year headed into the 2010 holiday season. For job applicants, it means additional opportunities to make a pass, but they’re still throwing the football into heavy coverage,” said Craig Rowley, VP and global practice leader for Hay Group’s retail practice.
Hay Group’s survey, in its fourth year, analyzed responses from 20 major U.S. retailers including J.C. Penney, Abercrombie & Fitch and Pier 1 in order to understand retailers’ plans for the 2010 holiday season.
Among the other highlights from the September 2010 Hay Group retail survey, 61% of retailers plan to hire the same amount of seasonal workers this year as in 2009, and 22% plan to hire five to 15% more workers. While 63% indicate that the ratio of permanent to seasonal store employees is about the same as last year, 26% note that they plan to hire fewer seasonal and more permanent staff this holiday season. Only 25% of respondents pay seasonal workers less than permanent staff, down from 33% in 2009.
When asked how they were affected by the recent slowdown in sales, only 17% of retailers noted that they hired fewer employees throughout the year. However, 13% of respondents said that they are delaying decisions about holiday staffing until closer to the holidays.
No respondents indicated that they expected sales to decrease from last year, a dramatic change from the 36% who predicted a decrease in 2009. More than one-third (35%) of retailers predict sales will increase by as much as six to 15%.
While 26% of respondents plan to run more promotions and deeper discounts than last year, 50% plan to spread out their promotions over the season and 22% plan to start early, up from just 4% in 2009. Retailers are also continuing to downplay the importance of Black Friday promotions this year — only 22% are running the most promotions on Black Friday compared to 2009 (35%) and 2008 (45%).
“Ultimately retailers are still planning to accommodate the recession-battered consumer, with discounts and promotions running longer throughout the season than last year,” said Rowley. “But while the consumer may be more apt to spend, given retailers’ strict inventory management, the early bird is most likely to get the worm.”
The due diligence retailers must take before turning sourcing operations over to an agent
Earlier this year, the world’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores, agreed to turn over purchasing operations for certain apparel lines and other goods to Li & Fung, the world’s largest sourcing agent. The deal could generate $2 billion in revenue for Li & Fung this year alone, helping the Hong Kong-based firm reach its 2010 revenue target of $20 billion, more than triple its sales of 2004 (Bloomberg, Jan. 2010).
But the landmark deal marks more than a boon for Li & Fung. It also foments the popularity of a growing trend: Retailers of all types are shifting product sourcing to agents. The benefits for such a shift can be compelling: a quick boost to cash flows, reduced overhead and minimized operational complexity.
But despite the many reasons retailers may choose to outsource some, most or all of their sourcing activities, there are also several potential pitfalls to doing so (we stress the word “potential” here because they are not inevitable and they can be avoided through striking the right contract with an agent and managing the relationship carefully). The two major types of possible pitfalls are product cost increases and being one step removed from manufacturing.
Product cost increases
Sourcing agents make money through the commissions they charge retailers. For most retailers, such commissions will be higher than the cost of a well-run internal sourcing office. In addition, those commissions can increase if a retailer misses the revenue target it sets with an agent. Furthermore, a retailer who aggregates purchases of fabric, trim and other product components and negotiates big price concessions with suppliers can face higher component costs by going through an agent who doesn’t negotiate the piece goods directly with the mills and suppliers.
Being one step removed from manufacturing
This can lead to time-to-market, quality and compliance problems. Even within their four walls, many retailers are familiar with delays and dropped handoffs in design, development and sourcing operations. Putting sourcing into someone else’s hands runs the risk of additional delays and dropped handoffs, especially if both organizations lack the technology to link their systems and product development processes. In addition, a retailer has to be sure that a sourcing agent maintains the retailer’s product quality standards. Furthermore, many retailers have adopted corporate social responsibility (CSR) standards that determine labor, environmental and other practices. Certain manufacturers used by a sourcing agent may not comply with those standards. All told, inserting another party between a retailer and its product suppliers can increase the risk that its goods arrive late, are of inferior quality or are manufactured through undesirable practices.
Unfortunately, these pitfalls and many others are often overlooked during the due diligence phase of this major financial decision. A retailer’s fixation on the cash it will receive for its sourcing operations can lead to inadequate upfront attention to product cost, quality and cycle time setbacks that will offset some of the deal’s benefits.
We are not suggesting retailers should shy away from exploring outsourced sourcing to agents. However, because products bring customers in the door, a sourcing relationship that goes sour can have a devastating impact on a business. In light of the magnitude of what’s at stake, we argue that turning over sourcing to agents is a board-level decision, one to be scrutinized with the same rigor as an acquisition or divestiture. From the due diligence phase to contract negotiations and sourcing agent management, successful deals are those that optimize the potential financial and strategic benefits without putting the product offering at risk.
Peter Brown is vice chairman of Kurt Salmon Associates, a leading consulting firm to retailers, consumer products companies and healthcare providers and suppliers (Kurtsalmon.com). Jeremy Rubman is a partner of the firm. He can reached at [email protected].
A&P to sell seven Conn. locations
MONTVALE, N.J. A&P announced that it has entered into an agreement with Big Y Foods, to sell seven store locations in northern Connecticut. The sale of these stores is part of a comprehensive turnaround strategy initially announced by the company in late July. The stores are expected to close at the end of October.
“We continue to evaluate our operating footprint and its alignment with our turnaround strategy. These seven stores were clearly outside of our core markets and their sale was necessary,” stated Sam Martin, president and CEO of A&P.
Martin continued, “The company faces many difficult decisions over the next several months which are required to strengthen our foundation and improve our performance going forward. As we implement these initiatives, we remain mindful of the impact on our associates. I would like to thank the affected associates for all of their hard work and dedication over the years.”