Analyst: Kohl's leads department stores over holiday weekend

11/27/2017
Roughly 65% of consumers made a purchase (online/store) this year over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, with 15% incremental uplift versus last year and a weighted average spend of $420.

"In terms of winners by retail sub-sector, we were able to analyze responses by both in-store traffic and digital results and, when combined, winners include Walmart, Kohl’s, Amazon and Dollar Tree," said Gordon Haskett Research Advisors analyst Chuck Grom.

In a note, Haskett said that, after surveying consumers, "we walked away from the start to the holiday shopping season more bullish than we had anticipated." He added that approximately 53% of consumers stated they spent more or much more than last year – "much higher than we had expected," with apparel the top category (66% hit rate) followed by consumer electronics (54%), toys (41%), and home décor (37%).

According to Gordon Haskett's survey data, Kohl’s (55.6%) led all department stores in Black Friday weekend, both online and in store, with J.C. Penney (54%) close on its heels. Moving down the list of highest traffic in descending order: Macy’s (52.2%); Sears (45.0%); Nordstrom (39.9%); Dillard’s (35.5%); Bloomingdales (35.3%); Saks Fifth Avenue (32.5%); and Neiman Marcus (32.3%).

"Interestingly, on average, the group drew 24.8% online traffic, slightly less than the 28.3% in-store traffic," Grom said.

The leaders in digital traffic among the department stores were J.C. Penney (32.3%), followed by Kohl’s and Macy’s at 30.1% each. Rounding out the group were: Sears (29.1%); Nordstrom (26.3%); Bloomingdales (26.3%); Neiman Marcus (17.5%); Saks Fifth Avenue (17.3%) and Dillard’s (14.2%).

Other finding from Gordon Haskett (based on its survey data) include:
* Walmart garnered more consumer traffic than Target when we measured online, in-store and total traffic. Approximately 76.5% of respondents said they made a purchase at Walmart, on Walmart.com. or both, versus 61.6% at Target.

* Walmart (when combined with Jet.com) is not only a powerhouse among discount retailers, but in close competition with Amazon when measuring online traffic only. To this end, approximately 57% of respondents indicated they made a purchase from Walmart.com (or Jet.com), about 12 percentage points below Amazon. While we admit, the gap is still wide, it’s important to note that the next most often cited online retailer on Black Friday Weekend was Target.com at roughly 35%.

*Stores remain the most popular means to shop on Black Friday Weekend, with 48.2% respondents doing more of their shopping in-store versus online, 14.9% split evenly between the two channels, and 36.9% tilted more towards online.

•Apparel was the most purchased category with 66.3% of respondents purchasing at least one apparel item, followed by electronics (54.0%), and toys (40.8%). Also, 15.7% of respondents purchased an iPhone this weekend.

*In the extreme value category, Dollar Tree (46.6%) and Dollar General (46.0%) were the winners.
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